Policy Briefs on THE

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HIV

Impact of HIV

Brief 7: Economic Growth – Overview

By Markus Haacker, Kate Harris, Gesine Meyer-Rath

December 2020

Key Points

  • HIV has increased mortality and slowed population growth. As a consequence, GDP is lower and will remain lower than it would have been without the impact of HIV.

  • Economic modelling suggests that the short- to medium-term impacts of HIV on GDP per capita are unclear, with important effects working in opposite directions. In the longer run, the effects are likely dominated by adverse impacts on education and skills.

  • The empirical evidence on the link between HIV and growth of GDP per capita is also unclear. Studies linking growth of GDP per capita and direct measures of the impact of HIV tend to find very small effects.

  • The evidence is strongest with regard to the impact of HIV on the accumulation of human capital, which however affects economic growth only very gradually.
Download PDF HIV Impact

Technical Briefs

The technical briefs provide more detail on the evidence available on each of the topics.

1. The State of Programme Implementation to Reduce HIV Transmission & Aids-Related Mortality

2. Increased Health and Life Prospects and Their Economic Valuation

3. HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force

4. Human Capital

5. Capital and Investment

6. Productivity and Employment of People Living with HIV

7. Economic Growth – Overview

8. Interactions Between HIV and Poverty

9. Disease Burden Across Population Sub-Groups

10. Trade-offs between Allocation to Health and Other Sectors

11. Domestic Public Funding for HIV

12. Trade-offs and Synergies between HIV and Other Health Objectives

13. Assessing Cost Effectiveness Across HIV and Health Interventions

14. External and Domestic Health Financing, and the Role of Public vs. Private Domestic Health Funding

15. Public and Private Provision of Health and HIV Services

16. Trade-offs within the HIV Budget

17. The Economics of HIV and of HIV Programmes in the Era of Covid-19

Brief 7: Economic Growth – Overview

By Markus Haacker, Kate Harris, Gesine Meyer-Rath

December 2020

Key Points

  • HIV has increased mortality and slowed population growth. As a consequence, GDP is lower and will remain lower than it would have been without the impact of HIV.

  • Economic modelling suggests that the short- to medium-term impacts of HIV on GDP per capita are unclear, with important effects working in opposite directions. In the longer run, the effects are likely dominated by adverse impacts on education and skills.

  • The empirical evidence on the link between HIV and growth of GDP per capita is also unclear. Studies linking growth of GDP per capita and direct measures of the impact of HIV tend to find very small effects.

  • The evidence is strongest with regard to the impact of HIV on the accumulation of human capital, which however affects economic growth only very gradually.
Download PDF HIV Impact

Technical Briefs

The technical briefs provide more detail on the evidence available on each of the topics.

1. The State of Programme Implementation to Reduce HIV Transmission & Aids-Related Mortality

2. Increased Health and Life Prospects and Their Economic Valuation

3. HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force

4. Human Capital

5. Capital and Investment

6. Productivity and Employment of People Living with HIV

7. Economic Growth – Overview

8. Interactions Between HIV and Poverty

9. Disease Burden Across Population Sub-Groups

10. Trade-offs between Allocation to Health and Other Sectors

11. Domestic Public Funding for HIV

12. Trade-offs and Synergies between HIV and Other Health Objectives

13. Assessing Cost Effectiveness Across HIV and Health Interventions

14. External and Domestic Health Financing, and the Role of Public vs. Private Domestic Health Funding

15. Public and Private Provision of Health and HIV Services

16. Trade-offs within the HIV Budget

17. The Economics of HIV and of HIV Programmes in the Era of Covid-19

Wits Health Consortium, University of the Witwatersrand