Policy Briefs on THE
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HIV
Brief 3: HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force
By Markus Haacker, Kate Harris, Gesine Meyer-Rath
21 January 2021
Key Points
- AIDS-related mortality among working-age adults reduces GDP growth but has an ambiguous effect on GDP per capita.
- In the short run, population size decreases due to reduced fertility and increased child mortality owing to HIV, and GDP per capita increases, but this results in lower growth of the working-age population and of GDP in the long run.
- A smaller elderly cohort due to HIV-related early mortality mitigates the fiscal burden of an ageing population, but as HIV treatment is scaled up, there is higher-than-normal growth of the old population.
- The HIV response reverses most of the demographic impacts and results in higher growth of the working-age population, but reversals in the impact on the population structure play out over decades.
Summary Briefs
The summary briefs provide an overview of three main areas of economic impact.
Master Slide Set
Policy Briefs
The policy briefs provide more detail on the evidence available on each of the topics.
1. The State of Programme Implementation to Reduce HIV Transmission & Aids-Related Mortality
2. Increased Health and Life Prospects and Their Economic Valuation
3. HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force
4. Human Capital
5. Capital and Investment
6. Productivity and Employment of People Living with HIV
7. Economic Growth – Overview
8. Interactions Between HIV and Poverty
9. Disease Burden Across Population Sub-Groups
10. Trade-offs between Allocation to Health and Other Sectors
11. Domestic Public Funding for HIV
12. Trade-offs and Synergies between HIV and Other Health Objectives
13. Assessing Cost Effectiveness Across HIV and Health Interventions
14. External and Domestic Health Financing, and the Role of Public vs. Private Domestic Health Funding
15. Public and Private Provision of Health and HIV Services
16. Trade-offs within the HIV Budget
17. The Economics of HIV and of HIV Programmes in the Era of Covid-19
Brief 3: HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force
By Markus Haacker, Kate Harris, Gesine Meyer-Rath
21 January 2021
Key Points
- AIDS-related mortality among working-age adults reduces GDP growth but has an ambiguous effect on GDP per capita.
- In the short run, population size decreases due to reduced fertility and increased child mortality owing to HIV, and GDP per capita increases, but this results in lower growth of the working-age population and of GDP in the long run.
- A smaller elderly cohort due to HIV-related early mortality mitigates the fiscal burden of an ageing population, but as HIV treatment is scaled up, there is higher-than-normal growth of the old population.
- The HIV response reverses most of the demographic impacts and results in higher growth of the working-age population, but reversals in the impact on the population structure play out over decades.
Technical Briefs
The technical briefs provide more detail on the evidence available on each of the topics.
1. The State of Programme Implementation to Reduce HIV Transmission & Aids-Related Mortality
2. Increased Health and Life Prospects and Their Economic Valuation
3. HIV, Population Dynamics and the Labour Force
4. Human Capital
5. Capital and Investment
6. Productivity and Employment of People Living with HIV
7. Economic Growth – Overview
8. Interactions Between HIV and Poverty
9. Disease Burden Across Population Sub-Groups
10. Trade-offs between Allocation to Health and Other Sectors
11. Domestic Public Funding for HIV
12. Trade-offs and Synergies between HIV and Other Health Objectives
13. Assessing Cost Effectiveness Across HIV and Health Interventions
14. External and Domestic Health Financing, and the Role of Public vs. Private Domestic Health Funding
15. Public and Private Provision of Health and HIV Services
16. Trade-offs within the HIV Budget
17. The Economics of HIV and of HIV Programmes in the Era of Covid-19
Wits Health Consortium, University of the Witwatersrand